Spread trading no longer works

For the moment, my doubts have materialised. Of course, I do not know how the spread will evolve in the coming weeks, but I would like to make one thing clear. I do not have a crystal ball and I am not a phenomenon. Of course, I cannot deny that my experience helps me a lot in my analyses. But if I am profitable in spread trading every month it is due to my preparation. Nothing more, nothing less than what is explained in my books.

I will open a short parenthesis in this regard. The bulk of the income from the sale of books goes to Amazon, which takes 40% of the cover price. The remaining 60%, minus the printing costs, is, so to speak, "redistributed". I am left with just enough to cover my advertising costs. So, for my pocket, whether you buy my books or not, it does not matter. Zero.

Just like whether or not you visit my website. I do not care since I do not want to advertise (and I have received many requests). You should be interested in learning from someone who has been doing this job for over 25 years and who does it profitably.

Having said this, and to avoid someone be a pain in my ass with the usual "he lives by selling books" spiel (I live off what I earn from trading, let it be clear to everyone), I come to the subject of this article.

I have read things over the last few weeks that have made the few hairs on my head stand on end. Things that show that a large proportion of traders have no idea what spread trading is. Even though they have attended courses from several thousand euros carried out from "top traders" (to demonstrate as counts more to know how to "sell" yourself than to know how much is being taught).

No wonder so many traders alternate between months in profit and months in loss, with a final balance at break-even at best. However, the funniest thing I have read, as the title says, is that spread trading no longer works.

No, it is not spread trading that does not work (it always works and quite well too). What does not work is the method that you have been taught and that I have been repeating since I started this website. Basing yourself only on seasonality, on those two or three concepts (good past results, correlated seasonal patterns, good price level) will only lead you to lose.

Then, oh, we live in a free world and you are free to think you are smarter and cleverer than me. Keep trading by following what you have learned in the courses. Keep losing (at least your time, if you end up at break-even). Using a phrase from a football coach I love, Jose Mourinho, "it's not my problem".

If you want to do spread trading with profit, you have to change your mindset and method completely. I have already explained in this article, https://tradingwithdavid.com/en/the-essence-of-spread-trading/ what the essence of spread trading is, and frankly, I am also tired of repeating the same things. I would like to use the little time I have to write articles that have interest. Not to copy and paste concepts that have already been expressed many times.

For the last time: seasonality alone is not enough to make money with spread trading; you have to get used to it. Anyone who tells you otherwise is incompetent. You have to analyse a spread and the underlying asset(s) 360 degrees. Whether or not a seasonality will be repeated this year is not decided by the 5- and 15-year seasonal patterns. It is decided by the fundamentals.

Only if conditions are the same this year as they were the previous year, it will there be a similar movement in the spread. Otherwise, it is very likely that the spread will move against seasonality.

I understand that you have been portrayed spread trading as something easy, almost like an ATM that hands out money on every trade. What I am asking you to do is much more strenuous. It involves work, study, research... Then, you probably all have jobs where you scratch your bellies for eight hours a day and bring home your coveted salary, otherwise, there is no reason to believe this bullshit.

I am sorry for the rudeness with which I have expressed my thought but unlike many nerds who, being losers themselves, in order to feel better, hope that others are too, I am sorry that money is wasted (in trading and in bad courses). This is regardless of whether a person is rich or poor.

I am happy when I receive emails like the one from Stefano, the Italian trader who gave me the idea to write this article. I am happy when someone thanks me and tells me that by reading my books and articles they have improved their trading and their results. I am satisfied when I can clarify doubts and explain unclear concepts.

You have no idea how many people ask me to give courses, to manage accounts. They ask me whether I do an advisory or a trading signals service. When I think about how much money I could earn, I begin to doubt my IQ. The fact is, if you really want to trade seriously and professionally, you have to rely only on yourself, on your head. You have to learn how the markets work and the correct way to analyse them. Create your own trading plan and follow it disciplined.

If your results are not satisfactory, do not blame the markets (which no longer work), blame yourself. It is your own method that is wrong. Spread trading worked, works, and will always work. It is you who must use the correct method to analyse commodities.

And if you do not feel like working, struggling, and putting in serious effort, forget trading. It cost you effort to save that money, do not waste it badly.