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OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report February 12, 2018

OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, commodity report

OPEC, Monthly Oil Market Report, commodity reportThe Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) is a monthly report issued by OPEC and covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year.

The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance.

The last Monthly Oil Market Report has been issued on February 12, 2018, and you can download it in pdf format at the end of the article.

 

Crude Oil Price Movements

The OPEC Reference Basket increased for the fifth-straight month in January, gaining a sharp 7.7% to average $66.85/b, the highest monthly average since November 2014. Oil prices were supported by continuing efforts by OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers to balance the market and ten consecutive weeks of crude inventory draw amid healthy economic growth and improving oil demand. ICE Brent was $4.99 higher at $69.08/b in January, while NYMEX WTI surged $5.71 to $63.66/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed 73¢ to $5.42/b.

 

World Economy

The global GDP growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% for both 2017 and 2018, mainly supported by advanced economies. US growth was revised up in 2018 to 2.7%, after growth of 2.3% in 2017. Growth in the Euro-zone was lifted to 2.5% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. Japan’s growth forecast remains unchanged in both 2017 and 2018 at 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. While China’s 2017 growth was better than expected at 6.9%, the 2018 growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.5%. Also, India’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 7.2% in 2018, after growth of 6.5% in 2017.

 

World Oil Demand

World oil demand growth in 2017 is estimated to increase by 1.60 mb/d, representing an upward adjustment of some 30 tb/d compared to last month’s projections, mainly to reflect the continuing better-than-expected data in OECD Europe in 3Q17. Total world oil demand stood at 97.01 mb/d in 2017. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseen to reach 98.60 mb/d, representing growth of 1.59 mb/d, 60 tb/d higher than the previous month’s projections and mainly reflecting the positive economic outlook.

 

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC supply in 2017 was revised up by 0.07 mb/d, mainly due to an upward revision in the OECD, to average 57.86 mb/d, representing growth of 0.86 mb/d. For 2018, non-OPEC supply forecast was revised up by 0.32 mb/d, to average 59.26 mb/d, representing growth of 1.40 mb/d, which was also revised up by 0.25 mb/d. Expectations for higher production in the US, UK and Brazil, as well as lesser declines in Mexico and China, were the main reasons behind the upward adjustment.

If you are interested, you can find all the previous Monthly Oil Market reports on the OPEC website using the archive on the right. You can also read all the last important Commodity Reports.

pdf, format, file, download Report February 12, 2018

Seasonalgo, seasonal trading, spread trading, commodity market

 

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